👋 Good morning! So, Sean Payton told his national media buddies that he did all of this following Sunday’s win over the Eagles:

Listen, my children, and you shall catch on
To the 5 p.m. ride of Sean Payton!

Do you remember when Taylor Heinicke was iced out on the team plane following his game-winning flop on Monday Night Football in 2022? I bring that up for no reason at all.

What route did we think Payton took the poor bus driver on? Did the sad Eagles fans at Skinny Joey’s Cheesesteaks take note of the three random luxury buses with tinted windows? Do we think Payton made it all the way up to Broad and Washington? Busy intersection there, might have been tough to turn around.

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As always, you can reach me at [email protected]

Are the Phillies done? Probably. And “probably,” in this case, means “eighty-eight point nine percent.” I did not know “probably” meant that, but hey, you learn something new every day. The numbers are the numbers, and here are some of them via the great Sarah Langs:

In the words of Lloyd Christmas, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?!”

11.1 percent, to be precise. Do I think the odds of both Aaron Nola finding himself against this Dodgers lineup and this Phillies lineup channeling October 2022 against Yoshinobu Yamamoto are all that high? No, no I do not. But I watch 100-something Phillies games every season and am gonna hold off on the obituary until one is necessary.

There is a scene in the Four Days In October 30 for 30, the first of 300 Red Sox documentaries, when Kevin Millar is talking to legendarily cranky columnist Dan Shaughnessy on the field before Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. His message: “Let me tell ya, don’t let us win today. We got Peedy [Pedro Martinez] tomorrow, then we got Schill [Curt Schilling] Game 6. And then in Game 7, anything can happen.”

So, to the Los Angeles Dodgers and their hordes of fans invading our post-game shows (seriously, thank you for the viewership!), don’t let us win today. We got Sanchy tomorrow, then we got Luzardo on Saturday. In a Game 5, anything can happen.

The bad news? Yamamoto is awesome. In a do-or-die game, I would rather put the Marsh/Stott/Kepler part of the platoons out there. But looking at Yamamoto’s splits, lefties had a dreadful .486 OPS against him this season. Not great, Bob. Yamamoto throws five pitches (including a nasty splitter), and his Baseball Savant page is all red. Tons of strikeouts and ground balls. The key might be to work enough walks to run his pitch count up.

On the other side, Aaron Nola is starting.

Ironic, because both of these guys were free agents in The Great Starter Hot Stove Winter of 2023-24. John Middleton said the Phillies “pushed hard” for Yamamoto, which considering how frugal last offseason turned out to be, I am a tad skeptical of. The Phillies ended up signing Nola for seven years, $172 million. The Dodgers ended up signing Yamamoto for 12 years, $325 million, plus a $50 million posting fee. But since Shohei Ohtani is getting paid in Bobby Bonilla years, it’s all funny money in Los Angeles anyway.

At first glance, in the post-game despair of Game 2, the Nola decision looked silly. The most common refrain around the Delaware Valley was, “Is Ranger hurt?” The second-most common refrain was, “Are they trying to lose?” And it very well might be the wrong decision. Nola’s last outing, eight innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts, was dominant. It was also against the lowly Minnesota Twins in a meaningless game, and it lowered his season ERA a half-run to 6.01.

Why might you pitch Nola? First and foremost, he is more comfortable as a starter than out of the bullpen. If I am gonna criticize Rob Thomson for putting other players in uncomfortable positions, the idea of Nola starting (which he has only done) and Ranger Suárez in relief (which he has sometimes done) makes some sense. You would force the Dodgers into some uncomfortable platoon decisions, and then turn it over to Ranger after one time through the order. That is what Uncle Vic thinks is gonna happen, anyway.

Why might you stay away from Nola? Simple, he has been both injured and terrible this season. If you are going to pitch him, then sure, start him. But should you pitch him at all? Would a Suárez-Buehler piggyback make more sense? Would The Tight Pants become a mystical force back at Chavez Ravine? They might.

And a 7.94 first inning ERA from Nola this season is gonna throw cold water on the, “It’s just one time through the order!” reasoning. Those Dodgers hitters are gonna be looking to mash. Just gotta hope they are over-aggressive like Heddo at the end of Rookie of the Year.

On paper, this is the hardest game that the Phillies will have to win all series. Not sure if Harrison Bader will be good to go. But…

The Phils will be wearing their powder blues. Glasnow-Sánchez in Game 4, and then Ohtani-Luzardo in Game 5. Don’t let us win tonight!

Look y’all, it’s the best time on the sports calendar. Everybody is in-season, Red October is here. That means it’s also the best time to BECOME A PHLY DIEHARD!

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• Free T-Shirt from the store or Branded Bills hat at sign-up

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including, just over the last two days…

Jim Salisbury on the Phillies

Charlie O’Connor on the Flyers

Fran Duffy on the Eagles

The Meeting: Even if we do not know the exact details, it does not feel like reckless speculation to observe that something seems off between Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. There have been signs. BG let that development slip on his radio show last year.

And that sounds like a bummer. Before they played in Philly, it was well-chronicled that Jalen and A.J. were tight. Jalen was by A.J.’s side at his draft party. There was the FaceTime after the Birds traded for A.J. on draft night.

So, credit to my friend Jimmy Kempski for reporting that Hurts, Brown and Saquon Barkley had a “long, positive conversation” on Monday that lasted a few hours. Do we think they were at a conference table? All on respective bean-bag chairs? Any talk about Saquon’s upcoming documentary? Until we get those important details, Jalen acknowledged The Meeting’s existence at his presser today.

Again, I do not pretend to know exactly what is going on there. On the field, we do know that the passing game has not been sharp. For the Eagles, that part has to change like it has before. In the Super Bowl, months after The BG Revelation, Jalen hit A.J. on a shallow crosser for a touchdown, and then they had a nice, real moment after the game… one in which they seemed to acknowledge the ups and downs.

But I did not want to get through this newsletter without acknowledging The Meeting.

Injury report: Saquon Barkley will be ready to go at MetLife — playing on that turf on a short week is cruel and unusual — but Landon Dickerson and Grant Calcaterra will not. Grant got popped trying to lower his shoulder on a well-designed RPO. Grant, I appreciate the bravery, but some advice: Do not lower your shoulder unless it’s like the smallest corner in the NFL.

Seems like The TothHeads will have their national coming-out party on Thursday Night Football. The suits at Amazon must be pumped about that.

As for Nakobe Dean, Uncle Vic acknowledged that he could be available for Thursday night’s game in a limited role. Coming off the patellar injury, I would let him debut at Anywhere But MetLife. And while I am not yet fully fluent in Fangio-ese, seems like Kelee Ringo is probably gonna be the starting corner again this week against The Classies.

Speaking of Uncle Vic, the PHNX crew broke down an, um, interesting situation with the Eagles’ former defensive coordinator. What a mess.

Seriously, some great Eagles coverage on our site right now.

(1) EJ’s Early Bird: The snaps are taking forever! Even beyond Jalen and A.J., this offense is not a very detail-oriented group right now. DeVonta Smith mentioned that receivers are still observing the wrong hand signals, which tracks. Remember when DeVonta and Jahan Dotson ran the same, exact route! And then there were the dreaded pre-snap penalties, which killed the Eagles on Sunday. Les wrote about them.

One of the costliest of the pre-snap penalties? Saquon’s illegal shift that negated a clutch fourth-down completion from Hurts to Smith.

Deniz has been all over this for the past few years. Basically, the Eagles have always snapped the ball really late under Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. But this year, like adrenaline junkies, they have taken it to a whole new level. It’s like Kramer seeing how far he could drive on an empty tank.

GET THE PLAY IN!

(2) Fran’s Film Review: Pretty interesting development for the Birds. The last two weeks, the opponent featured a blitz-happy, man-coverage defense. They utilized that game-plan, and Hurts more or less carved it up. And then Todd Bowles and Vance Joseph adjusted by sitting in zone. And it worked both times!

Basically, this is Bizarro 2023. “Dropping eight” is the new “zero blitz.” As Fran noted, “Hurts was sacked six times. Five of them came when the Broncos sent four or fewer rushers. Ten of their 14 pressures (per NextGenStats) came in the same way.”

Credit to the Bucs and Broncos for changing it up. The Eagles need to find some answers against these looks.

Operation Orange and Black: Very cool, super well-produced interview that Cuz did with all of the movers and shakers in Voorhees: Dan Hilferty, Keith Jones, Danny Briere and Rick Tocchet. Seriously, if you are a Flyers fan, you will want to check this one out.

Final roster decisions: Hey, the Orange and Black drop the puck for real tomorrow night! Smart of the Panthers to not schedule Trevor Zegras’ debut on Banner Night, that would not have worked out well for them. I will write a little more about the Flyers’ expectations in tomorrow’s newsletter.

For now, you should read Charlie’s piece on the final roster. Jett Luchanko is still around, and like last year, he will have to prove himself to stick on the roster past the nine-game trial option (a period in which the Flyers could send him back to juniors and not burn a year of his entry-level contract). But unlike last year, it does not seem like a fait accompli that The Jett will go back to Guelph.

Bad news for the Flyers is that Cam York will miss at least seven days after being placed on IR. That d-corps is gonna be tested in a major way in the first week, and judging from the preseason, that group is not exactly teeming with quality depth.

And if you want to get some California sunshine following the winter, we are headed out to California with Philly Sports Trips! You can even boo Quitter Gauthier on this one. Some other perks from this awesome trip…

The Philly Sports Trips people really know how to make the best of your trip. Take a deeper look into the California Takeover here!

The Wheel: It hurts a little more that J-Roll is the one who did this excellent breakdown of why Nick Castellanos’ base running on The Bunt was no bueno.

Credit where due, the Dodgers executed the wheel play perfectly. Where Trea Turner failed with his inaccurate throw, Max Muncy and Mookie Betts nailed it.

The bummer, though, is that the Dodgers showed the wheel on the first pitch (a ball that Bryson Stott took). At that point, you know what is coming. Maybe Stott could have slapped a ball anywhere up the middle past Alex Vesia, which probably ties the game. Easier said than done from my couch, for sure.

Regardless though, Castellanos has gotta get a better secondary lead with second base being left wide open. Once Mookie Betts is a few steps ahead of him, Casty has to book it. He also has the potential option of faking to third and going back to second base, although that would have also been close because Freddie Freeman was breaking in that direction.

But then again, Casty is not particularly fast and a below-average base runner. And that has to be part of the calculus when deciding to sacrifice bunt with Stott.

One other part of this: Harrison Bader getting injured was a bad break, and second-guessing is easy, but Taijuan Walker, Walker Bueheler Tim Mayza were all on the roster. Could the Phillies have taken a position player instead of one of them? The Dodgers brought one more position player to this series than the Phillies did. Just seems the like Phillies have not pressed one right button.

Speaking of Castellanos… This quote, from Jim’s piece, was a choice.

The Durantula: Poor Jhoan Duran. You cannot do this trailing 4-1 in a playoff game. You just cannot.

This moment actually has some precedent. Remember 2022, when Edwin Diaz’s trumpet entrance was all the rage? Well, in a wild-card elimination game, the Mets played the trumpet entrance as Diaz entered the game down 4-0 in the eighth inning… and it went over in New York just like it is going over in Philly.

I have a simple compromise for the Phillies, if Duran does not wanna get booed…

Game 3 of Phillies-Dodgers, and unfortunately, it’s a late one (9:08 p.m., TBS). Drink some coffee today, people.

Your tentative Wednesday schedule at ​PHLY. Busy day​:

Let’s make it a good one.

Rich Hofmann
Daily Newsletter Editor
PHLY SPORTS