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We know the stakes. Loser goes golfing, winner becomes your World Series favorite.

And as Jimmy Steaks noted, this group of Phillies is under a ton of pressure… and not just John Middleton “Give me my [redacted] trophy!” pressure either. That is mostly a good thing, as pressure is a privilege. But this situation is essentially if the 2011 Phillies did not have a core that already won a World Series in Philadelphia. “Cardinals 1, Phillies 0” was unequivocally one of the worst sports losses of my sports fandom, but it might have been the worst without 2008.

(After reading Jim’s piece, I thought “More like Jimmy Stakes!” and gave a sensible chuckle to myself.)

Over the past four years, this group has revived baseball in Philadelphia. The ballpark is buzzing all summer, and it’s an extremely enjoyable regular-season product. I am grateful to these Phillies for all of that stuff. But this era will be looked at much differently, much more fondly, with a parade down Broad Street. Them’s the rules, I do not make ‘em. So yeah, a lot of pressure for a team that did so much right this season. But again, pressure is a privilege.

There are six “phases” here, because I am not gonna write about defense in a freaking newsletter. So, let’s highlight a few things to look out for…

Phillies starters: As Cuz said here, this series really should be seven games from a general baseball fan perspective. But I think the Phillies, after Zack Wheeler’s injury, lucked out with both the five-game series and the built-in extra rest on the National League side this year.

Why’s that? Simple: 1 through 3, the Phillies can match up with the Dodgers’ starting pitching. If a fourth starter had to get involved, the Dodgers would have a massive advantage on paper in that game. But you only need three for this series! If Dave Roberts wants to utilize his starting pitching depth, fine, knock yourself out. But the Phillies do not need to go any deeper than three.

A lot will be made about the theater of Shohei Ohtani pitching in The Madhouse on Saturday. Fair enough, I cannot wait myself! But national media, let’s not overlook that Shohei is facing one of the best few pitchers in the sport in Cristopher Sánchez. We made a lot about Sanchy’s home-road splits last year, and he has cleaned it up away from Philly this year. But make no mistake, Sanchy at CBP is still as good as it gets: 1.94 ERA in 97.2 innings, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and a 13-2 team record in Sanchy’s home starts this year. Would have been 14-1 if the Durantula did not blow a save against the Fish.

Rob Thomson’s big decision comes with who to throw in Game 2: Ranger Suárez or Jesús Luzardo. Heart says Ranger, head says Luzardo… especially because Ranger might be a bullpen option in Game 1 if you bump him back to Game 3. This group has their work cut out, the Dodgers had the third-highest OPS against lefties this season.

Dodgers starters: Crazy that the Dodgers won the World Series last season on the strength of their bullpen. Complete opposite this year. Their starting rotation is healthy, and it’s excellent. No way around that.

Shohei no-hit the Phils through five innings the last time we saw him, gonna need Kevin Long and co. to make a few, um, adjustments there. But Roberts took him out early that night, in order to preserve his arm. I do not foresee Shohei throwing 115 pitches, but my guess is that Roberts is gonna push his starters because he is legitimately terrified of his bullpen. One example: Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 113 pitches on Wednesdee.

My guess is we will see Ohtani-Snell-Yamamoto-Glasnow-Ohtani… and then some of those guys out of the bullpen. Clayton Kershaw is around, too, if they want another lefty in Glasnow’s place.

Phillies lineup: It’s #ChaseRateSZN! Man, I really hope we do not have to talk about that again.

My guess is that we see Alec Bohm batting cleanup, he was the hot hand at the end of the season. Let’s hope it goes better than last October for him. And my guess is that we see these platoons…

Once you get into the ‘pen, I would be aggressive getting Marsh and Stott into the game. But with the addition of Harrison Bader in Johan Rojas’ place, this is a longer lineup than previous postseasons. Post all-star break, the Phillies’ bottom of the order (7-8-9) ranked third in OPS in all of MLB. Bryson Stott and Max Kepler’s turnarounds have been crucial.

Trea Turner is a huge x-factor. I do not have anything insightful to say about him, just hope he is healthy enough to cause havoc. So is J.T. Realmuto, who had a down September and might bat 8th against a righty. But Bryce Harper, coming off a down season by his lofty standards, is the biggest x-factor of all. Of all players with 150 postseason plate appearances, here is what the OPS leaderboard looks like: Gehrig, Ruth, Brett, Beltran, Harper.

Bryce lives for these moments, and he got a week to rest up any nagging injuries. Let’s go.

Dodgers lineup: It’s very good, with legitimate power. The Dodgers hit the second-most homers in baseball, and unlike the Yankees (who were first), they play in a real ballpark. Even Mookie Betts, who had a major down season, is turning it around. Against the Reds, Mookie went 6-9 with three doubles and a walk.

Will Smith, the Dodgers’ excellent catcher, is a question mark. He has not played in a month with a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. Smith is good at handling the running game, but it might be worth testing him a bit.

Phillies bullpen: When the Phillies beat those loaded Atlanta teams in ‘22 and ‘23, the bullpen was awesome. When the Phillies lost to that less-than-loaded Mets team last year, the bullpen was a legitimate tire fire and perhaps the biggest reason they went home. Seriously, two scoreless innings in Game 1 would have meant Zack Wheeler pitching at home in Game 5.

We once had the Bridge to Lidge. I am curious what the Drag to Duran (still workshopping that one) looks like. Matt Strahm is gonna be critical in this series, as he has thrown 6.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers the past two years… with some big-boy moments mixed in there. Because Orion Kerkering has struggled so much down the stretch, I guess David Robertson will be the main righty set-up guy. Well, all of the rest days play in D-Rob’s favor. Tanner Banks has had an underratedly nice season.

Just get it to Jhoan, who might be called on for more than three outs at times. After all, it is the playoffs.

Not the same type of gas we had in ‘22 and ‘23. But still better than…

Dodgers bullpen: If the Phillies lineup is trending in the right direction, this group is going the other way: 21st of 30 in ERA post-August 1st, 25th of 30 in ERA post-September 1st. The Phils won those two games at Chavez Ravine by following the same script: More or less dominated by the starter, and then complete domination of the bullpen. Blake Treinen might as well have been throwing beach balls in that series.

Again, one of the keys of this series is the Phillies lineup getting into the Dodgers bullpen as quickly as possible. Especially at Citizens Bank Park, an especially tough place for a visiting reliever to get outs.

Now, the Dodgers do have starting pitching depth to help here. Might we see Tyler Glasnow in one of the early games? I thought Emmet Sheehan would be heard from, but he is coming off one of the weirder appearances you will see. But the big x-factor here is Roki Sasaki, who might now be their closer. He closed out the Reds and pumped 100 mph all inning.

Anyway, I simultaneously can’t wait and would like to throw up.

Eagles-Broncos: I went a little long there, but hey, it’s Phillies-Dodgers. So, forgive me, but this will be my shortest Birds game preview of the year. But that is what Bo, Fran and EJ are here for.

(Speaking of the Phillies, if that series does not end in a sweep, we will have Game 4 on the same night that the Birds travel up the turnpike to take on Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and the Classies. Would be similar to when Eagles-Texans went up against Game 5 of the World Series in 2022, except with The Dreaded MetLife Turf as an additional x-factor.)

The Broncos are 2-2 after a get-right game against a terrible Bengals team. By the way, Bengals, have any interest in shopping Trey Hendrickson? This is a game between two elite defenses and two mid-pack, inconsistent offenses.

Denver is gonna blitz a lot and play man coverage, with The Excellent Patrick Surtain on the back end. The Eagles were awesome against the blitz in Tampa Bay, and when Todd Bowles dialed it back, they had no idea what do. You never know what you are gonna see on the football field. It would be nice for “the quarterback” and A.J. Brown to get back on track this week, but it will not be easy. This has been a very good defense for two years now.

Sean Payton is a good play-caller, but I am not a believer in Bo Nix. I am curious if Uncle Vic rolls with Kelee Ringo for a second straight week, as it seems like Adoree’ Jackson is trending towards being available. My uninformed guess is that Kelee gets a second-straight start. They wanted him to take that spot in the first place!

I have no idea what to expect from the offense, but man, watching Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean 15 hours after the Phils go up against Ohtani? What a privilege!

Elmont N.Y. 4, Flyers 3: Just one preseason game left for the Flyers, and sorting through Charlie’s observations…

And on yesterday’s Flyers show, the crew gave their predictions. Take a look at Charlie’s “bold” Flyers prediction: A top-half power play, which considering the recent history of the franchise, is indeed quite bold.

Charlie is buying the Michkov-Zegras hype. But he also is buying the Jay Varady hype. Who is Jay Varady, you may ask? Read below.

New York 99, Sixers 84: They are calling this one Airballs in Abu Dhabi! Kyle has more here. Post-game pod is here.

The Hospital Sixers shot 1-20 from deep in the first half, and 3-35 (8.6%) from the game. Everyone knows that those rims near the Persian Gulf are notoriously tight. And the one 3 the Sixers did make before halftime, you may ask?

My main request for this game was, “VJ, do cool stuff,” and you know what? The rook definitely did some cool stuff. I thought his passing on the move was excellent, and he tried to end Mitchell Robinson with a dunk. Again, cool stuff.

As for the team? Eh, it’s Preseason Game 1 and the Sixers were super shorthanded, so I am not getting too worked up. That said…

And if you are looking for the best breakdown of The Quentin Grimes Affair, make sure to read Derek below.

Look y’all, there is a ton of sports on this weekend. Phillies are playing. Eagles are playing. Union are playing. Penn State is playing. Sixers are playing. Flyers are playing. Check your local listings.

Your tentative Friday schedule at ​PHLY​:

Have a great weekend. Let’s make it a good one today.

Rich Hofmann
Daily Newsletter Editor
PHLY SPORTS