👋 Good morning! Hear me out, I think Jesús Luzardo is on pace to turn into 2008 Cole Hamels this October.

  • First 11 starts (3/29 to 5/25): Cy Young

  • Next two starts (5/31 and 6/5): Worst pitcher ever

  • Next 11 starts (6/11 to 8/11): Cy Young

  • Next two starts (8/16 and 8/22): Worst pitcher ever

  • Next 11 starts (September and October): Cy Young

Gotta be careful with Jesús later in the year. Skipping his turn once or going to a six-man rotation for a few weeks will give you some more wiggle room. And while we are at it, someone please send this newsletter to Caleb Cotham. But I like how things are trending. You set two games on fire around Labor Day, but Jesús will be on fire in October. — Rich Hofmann

As always, you can reach me at [email protected].

Trivia Thursday

Phillies undrafted players: In 2022, the Phils signed undrafted free agent Otto Kemp from Point Loma Nazarene University.

The MLB amateur draft was created in 1965. Name the three “undrafted” players — And that means undrafted for whatever reason, an international signing or an American whose name did not get called — who have appeared in the most games for the Phillies since 1965. They are the only three players to appear in over 1,000 games for the club in that span.

Answers at the bottom.

Sixers Draft Catch-up

From old friend Jake Fischer (who now works with current colleague Marc Stein), we got some intel on the Sixers. Yes, the Sixers. The two key nuggets…

  1. “The prime candidate at No. 3 at this juncture appears to be Baylor freshman guard VJ Edgecombe, who sources say visited with the Sixers last week.”

  2. “[Edgecombe] went to dinner with Daryl Morey and other Sixers higher-ups. Even Tyrese Maxey, sources say, flew in for the occasion.”

The guys podded about the latest developments here. Could this be a smokescreen to create a bidding war? Perhaps, and we will know for sure in a few weeks. That said, the Sixers targeting Edgecombe would make sense, for multiple reasons:

  • Consensus: Most draft boards have Edgecombe rated highly, so this is not a massive departure from what everyone else thinks. Derek and Will have him ranked No. 3 in our draft guide.

  • Analytics: Edgecombe also feels like a Daryl Morey player, in that he fills up the box score. Analytic models tend to rate those players highly. I have no idea what the Sixers’ internal numbies say about Edgecombe’s freshman season at Baylor, but he graded out highly according to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton. I bet he fares pretty well in this department.

  • Recent team trends: Edgecombe is considered to be a high-character gym rat, and the Sixers have hit on that archetype recently with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain. Why not go back to that well?

  • Recent league trends: After the season, Morey correctly talked about how the NBA game has trended faster and takes more energy to play. Watch Oklahoma City and Indiana in the finals, those are super-athletic teams suited to play this style. Well, Edgecombe is best run-and-jump athlete in the draft, a guy who excels in transition. There are questions about his skill level, sure, but he has the athletic profile to thrive in the modern NBA.

The Sixers are usually pretty good at staying buttoned up with their information. I will say, though, I do not think they need to mask their intentions too much at No. 3. Cooper Flagg is gonna be the first pick. Dylan Harper is gonna be the second pick (and if he is not, he better be the third pick). They can select the best player available from the rest of the draft crop. There is a reason that many draftniks are framing it as, “The draft starts at 3.” The Sixers are considered to be the first variable.

It is notable that Maxey is being involved here. Notable for what it says about Edgecombe, but also notable for what it says about Maxey’s place in the organization.

Another point that Kyle made on the pod: The good folks at Rookie Scale put together a Consensus Mock Draft, which is a valuable exercise that we also see on the NFL side. And what does it look like right now? 3. VJ Edgecombe 4. Ace Bailey 5. Tre Johnson.

Tre Johnson is someone that we see being mocked to the Sixers in some places, and like Edgecombe, I can see why people like him. Crazy good 3-point shooter who made shots with volume and versatility. Catch-and-shoots, running off screens and pull-ups off the dribble. Can Johnson figure out the other stuff? I dunno, but like Edgecombe, he certainly has his strengths. Intriguing player.

Two signings: The Birds signed two dudes, one you have heard of and one you almost certainly have not heard of…

Phillies 7, Cubs 2: Pitch-tipping can always be a convenient excuse for poor pitching. If I was a pitcher and got rocked simply because I was terrible that day/night, I would be hammering the idea of pitch-tipping in my post-game availability.

But in the case of Jesús Luzardo these past few weeks, it was fair to search for a theory as to why things fell apart these last few starts. The velo and the stuff were still there. Like many things in life, multiple things can be true at once. It probably was a little bit of pitch-tipping and a little bit of poor execution.

Pitching Ninja did a good job of Zaprudering it. Looks like Luzardo is holding the ball higher in a different glove. It takes a while longer for the hitter to see the grip. And he carved up a very good Cubs lineup with changeups and sliders using the slightly-altered mechanics.

But do not take my word for it, we have Jim Salisbury writing for our site! The ball scribe’s ball scribe explains what was going on:

A deep dive into the numbers showed that hitters were just 6 for 42 against Luzardo when there was a runner on second base over his first 11 starts. In the two disastrous starts, hitters were 9 for 10 while there was a runner on second base.

On Wednesday, Luzardo made an adjustment when there was a runner on second. In his stretch, he came set with his glove higher and tighter against his body, thus shielding the ball and his grip from the runner on second. He also ditched his sinker. He threw a total of 24 of them in his previous two starts, but zero (according to Statcast data) on Wednesday. He threw predominantly power, four-seam fastballs, up to 98 mph, and mixed in an effective change-up to go with his slider and sweeper. The result: 10 strikeouts, no walks, 16 swings and misses, seven more than he had in his previous two starts. The only run that Luzardo allowed came after an inning was extended when right fielder Nick Castellanos failed to make a play on a catchable foul ball.

The Phillies needed a convincing win. I needed a convincing win. We both got it.

Nice to see the bats finally wake up. Five extra-base hits in this one, which is a week’s worth for these guys recently. Good series for three guys that desperately need to get going: Alec Bohm, Max Kepler and J.T. Realmuto (against righties, at least). And good to see Kyle Schwarber go deep in his favorite month.

Carlos Hernandez, we hardly knew ye: The reliever was DFA’d. Michael Mercado, who you probably remember from last year, was brought up in his place. Mercado pitched a scoreless ninth inning, as the Phils now get two crucial days here to reset the bullpen.

LOL KNICKS: I love Tom Thibodeau as an NBA character (“Ice! Ice!”) and think he is a fine coach, but I also did not view his firing as some sort of grave injustice. Thibs never even attempted to develop the Knicks’ bench, his offenses never offered a ton of creativity, and frankly, this is just the way that the league works nowadays. Sometimes, a coach can do a nice job and still get fired. It does not always feel great, but these guys know what they are signing up for. James Dolan still has to pay Thibs $30 million to not coach his basketball team.

That said, if you are firing Thibs, you gotta have someone else in mind. This coaching search has been absolutely wild. The only other time that the Knicks have been denied so many times in short succession is when Charles Smith had the ball under the basket against the Chicago Bulls.

Nick Nurse, that South Jersey phone number that is about to call you belongs to Leon Rose. I bet Leon is an 856 man.

But the funniest outcome, and the call that might be coming next? A man who on was the floor for the Knicks during the aforementioned Charles Smith sequence.

T.J. McConnell, legend: Been doing it for a decade. Now, he’s doing it up 2-1 in the NBA Finals.

No Phils today, they get the day off before a weekend series against the Blue Jays. I will mostly be watching the U.S. Open. Oh baby, The Course is gonna eat those guys alive.

Your tentative Thursday schedule at PHLY:

  • 🎙️ Philly Philly with Jon Marks: 8:00 a.m.

  • 🎙️ The Anthony Gargano Show: 9:00 a.m.

  • 🏒 Flyers: 12:00 p.m.

  • 🦅 Eagles: 2:00 p.m.

  • 🏀 Sixers: 3:00 p.m.

And oh yeah, the undrafteds: Bobby Abreu, Larry Bowa (undrafted in the first amateur draft, 1965!), Carlos Ruiz

Let's make it a good one.

Rich Hofmann

Daily Newsletter Editor

PHLY SPORTS

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